CS:GO Case Odds: How Rare is Rare?

CS:GO case opening is one of the most exciting elements of playing CS:GO. There’s an undeniable thrill in rolling the dice and seeing what weapon skin you’ll be able to equip next. But opening cases, it’s crucial that players understand CS:GO case odds so they’re aware of the odds of drawing some of the game’s top skins.

CS:GO Case Odds

What are the CS:GO Case Odds?

CS:GO guns each have a rarity assigned to them, officially known as ‘Weapon Quality’. These rarities are:

  • White (Common) – Consumer Grade, Base Grade.
  • Baby Blue (Uncommon) – Industrial Grade.
  • Navy Blue (Rare) – Mil-Spec, High Grade.
  • Purple (Mythical) – Restricted, Remarkable.
  • Hot Pink (Legendary) – Classified, Exotic.
  • Red (Ancient) – Covert, Extraordinary.
  • Gold (Exceedingly Rare) – Knife, Gloves.
  • Rose Gold (Immortal) – Contraband (Discontinued).

However, White and Baby Blue do not appear in CS:GO cases, only dropping as rewards after games. These skins can’t teach you how to get better at CS:GO, but they might look cool for new players starting out. Rose Gold items have also been discontinued, so it’s only the rest that appear as drops in CS:GO cases.

But what actually are the CS:GO case odds? Due to laws passed by China’s Ministry of Culture, in 2017 Valve was forced to publish the official numbers, giving players an exact idea of how they’re spending their money.  These odds were as follows:

  • Navy Blue (Rare) – 79.92%
  • Purple (Mythical) – 15.98%
  • Hot Pink (Legendary) – 3.2%
  • Red (Ancient) – 0.64%
  • Gold (Exceedingly Rare) – 0.26%

As you can see, the odds of receiving a skin that turns a profit during your CS:GO case opening are extremely unlikely. We think we’ll stick to our CS:GO free skins. Only the luckiest of players manage to receive a prize such as a knife. If there’s a specific skin you want in-game, it will usually be cheaper to buy than to continue to try your luck through CS:GO case openings.

There’s another element to CS:GO case odds. With every drop of any Weapon Quality, there is a chance that the gun will be StatTrak, meaning that the weapon will track the number of kills made by the owner. The odds of this are 1 in 10 for any drop. A StatTrak variant of a skin is usually much more expensive than its non-StatTrak variant, as they’re extremely rare to come across on already-rare skins.

It’s not uncommon for crazy skin drops to be front-page CS:GO news, even over a decade after release. Now that you know the CS:GO case odds, it’s up to you to decide how much you want to chance becoming one of the extremely fortunate few.

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